@article {1573, title = {Vulnerability of South African animal taxa to climate change}, journal = {Global Change Biology}, volume = {8}, number = {7}, year = {2002}, note = {Times Cited: 1Cited Reference Count: 96Cited References: 1998, WHITE PAPER POPULATI *AFR NAT C, 1994, REC DEV PROGR *IPCC, 1992, CLIM CHANG 1992 SUPP *IPCC, 1995, CLIM CHANG 1995 IMP *IPCC, 2000, EM SCEN 2000 *IPCC, 1997, REG IMP CLIM CHANG 1 ALLAN DG, 1997, ATLAS SO AFRICAN BIR BRANCH WR, 1995, S AFR J ZOOL, V30, P91 BROWN JH, 1998, BIOGEOGRAPHY BROWN JH, 1995, MACROECOLOGY BUSE A, 1999, FUNCT ECOL S1, V13, P74 CAMMELL ME, 1992, ADV ECOL RES, V22, P117 CAUGHLEY G, 1996, CONSERVATION BIOL TH CHANNELL R, 2000, NATURE, V403, P84 CHOWN SL, 1999, BIOL REV, V74, P87 COOPE GR, 1995, EXTINCTION RATES, P55 CORNELL HV, 1992, J ANIM ECOL, V61, P1 DAVIS AJ, 1998, J ANIM ECOL, V67, P600 DAVIS AJ, 1998, NATURE, V391, P783 DAVIS ALV, 1997, AFR J ECOL, V35, P10 DELEO JM, 1993, P 2 INT S UNC MOD AN, P318 DELONG ER, 1988, BIOMETRICS, V44, P837 DRINKROW DR, 1995, S AFR J ZOOL, V30, P82 EELEY HAC, 1999, J BIOGEOGR, V26, P595 ERASMUS BFN, 2000, AFR ENTOMOL, V8, P157 FAIRBANKS DHK, 2000, S AFR J SCI, V96, P69 FAJER ED, 1989, SCIENCE, V243, P1198 FEARNSIDE PM, 1999, ENVIRON CONSERV, V26, P305 FIELDING AH, 1997, ENVIRON CONSERV, V24, P38 FREEDMAN B, 1989, ENV ECOLOGY IMPACTS FREITAG S, 1997, AFR ENTOMOL, V5, P205 FREITAG S, 1995, S AFR J ZOOL, V30, P136 GASTON KJ, 1997, J ANIM ECOL, V66, P579 GASTON KJ, 1999, OIKOS, V86, P584 GASTON KJ, 1994, RARITY GATES DM, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE ITS B GELDERBLOM CM, 1995, S AFR J ZOOL, V30, P103 GELDERBLOM CM, 1995, S AFR J ZOOL, V30, P127 GUISAN A, 2000, ECOL MODEL, V135, P147 HAMMOND PM, 1994, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V345, P119 HARRISON JA, 1997, ATLAS SO AFRICAN BIR HILL JK, 1999, P ROY SOC LOND B BIO, V266, P1197 HOCHBERG ME, 1999, ECOGRAPHY, V222, P268 HULL HE, 1998, AFR ENTOMOL, V6, P265 JABLONSKI D, 1996, ECOLOGY, V77, P1367 JABLONSKI D, 1985, PALEOBIOLOGY, V11, P75 JABLONSKI D, 1991, SCIENCE, V253, P754 JEFFREE CE, 1996, FUNCT ECOL, V10, P562 JEFFREE EP, 1994, FUNCT ECOL, V8, P640 KERR J, 1998, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V49, P263 KOCH SO, 2000, J INSECT CONSERVATIO, V4, P45 KRAEMER HC, 1988, AM STAT, V42, P37 LAWTON JH, 1995, EXTINCTION RATES LELAGADEC MD, 1998, J COMP PHYSIOL B, V168, P112 LOMBARD AT, 1995, S AFR J ZOOL, V30, P145 LOVEGROVE BG, 1988, OECOLOGIA, V74, P600 LOW AB, 1996, VEGETATION S AFRICA MARKHAM A, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA MASTERS GJ, 1998, ECOL ENTOMOL, V23, P45 MCDONALD I, 1996, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P83 MCNEELY JA, 1995, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V4, P510 MCNEELY JA, 1994, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V3, P390 MYERS AA, 1988, ANAL BIOGEOGRAPHY IN OATLEY T, 1998, ROBINS AFRICA OBUCHOWSKI NA, 1998, ACAD RADIOL, V5, P561 ORESKES N, 1994, SCIENCE, V263, P641 PARMESAN C, 1999, NATURE, V399, P579 POUNDS JA, 1999, NATURE, V398, P611 POYNTON JC, 1996, J BIOGEOGR, V23, P669 POYNTON JC, 1961, NATURE, V189, P801 RICHTER TA, 1997, FUNCT ECOL, V11, P240 RICKLEFS RE, 1993, SPECIES DIVERSITY EC ROBINSON T, 1997, MED VET ENTOMOL, V11, P223 ROBINSON T, 1997, MED VET ENTOMOL, V11, P235 RODRIGUES ASL, 2000, P ROY SOC LOND B BIO, V267, P49 ROGERS DJ, 1994, LARGE SCALE ECOLOGY, P247 ROOT T, 1988, J BIOGEOGR, V15, P489 ROY K, 1996, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V11, P458 RUTHERFORD M, 2000, DIVERSITY AND DISTRI, V5, P253 RUTHERFORD MC, 1994, MEM BOT SURV S AFR, V63, P1 SCHOLTZ CH, 1995, S AFR J SCI, V91, P124 SCHULZE R, 1997, S AFRICAN ATLAS AGRO SHANNON DA, 2000, THESIS U CAPETOWN SPICER JI, 1999, PHYSL DIVERSITY ITS SUTHERST RW, 1985, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V13, P281 SUTHERST RW, 1995, INSECTS CHANGING ENV, P59 THOMAS JA, 1999, FUNCT ECOL S1, V13, P55 TOKESHI M, 1999, SPECIES COEXISTENCE VANJAARSVELD AS, 1998, S AFR J SCI, V94, P210 VANJAARSVELD AS, 2000, SUSTAINABILITY CHALL, P265 VANRENSBURG B, 2000, ECOLOGY, V8, P3163 VANWYK AE, 1996, BIODIVERSITY AFRICAN, P198 VIDA S, 1993, COMPUT METH PROG BIO, V40, P95 WESSELS KJ, 2000, ANIM CONSERV 1, V3, P67 WHITE F, 1983, VEGETATION AFRICA DE ZWEIG MH, 1993, CLIN CHEM, V39, P561EnglishArticle559ZDGLOB CHANGE BIOL}, month = {Jul}, pages = {679-693}, abstract = {The responsiveness of South African fauna to climate change events is poorly documented and not routinely incorporated into regional conservation planning. We model the likely range alterations of a representative suite of 179 animal species to climate change brought about by the doubling of CO2 concentrations. This scenario is expected to cause a mean temperature increase of 2 degreesC. We applied a multivariate climate envelope approach and evaluated model performance using the most comprehensive bird data set. The results were encouraging, although model performance was inconsistent in the eastern coastal area of the country. The levels of climate change induced impacts on species ranges varied from little impact to local extinction. Some 17\% of species expanded their ranges, 78\% displayed range contraction (4-98\%), 3\% showed no response and 2\% became locally extinct. The majority of range shifts (41\%) were in an easterly direction, reflecting the east-west aridity gradient across the country. Species losses were highest in the west. Substantially smaller westward shifts were present in some eastern species. This may reflect a response to the strong altitudinal gradient in this region, or may be a model artifact. Species range change (composite measure reflecting range contraction and displacement) identified selected species that could act as climate change indicator taxa. Red-data and vulnerable species showed similar responses but were more likely to display range change (58\% vs. 43\% for all species). Predictions suggest that the flagship, Kruger National Park conservation area may loose up to 66\% of the species included in this analysis. This highlights the extent of the predicted range shifts, and indicates why conflicts between conservation and other land uses are likely to escalate under conditions of climate change.}, keywords = {beetles coleoptera, common fly belt, conservation, Dung beetles, fragmentation, geographical ranges, habitat availability, land-use, protection status, range contraction, sensed vegetation data, species turnover, tsetse habitat}, url = {://000176055800007}, author = {Erasmus, B. F. N. and Van Jaarsveld, A. S. and Chown, S. L. and Kshatriya, M. and Wessels, K. J.} }